Summary.
Many prospective first home buyers are
being forced out of the house purchase market because variable interest rates
create a volatile housing market.
All housing loans should be fixed – for the
full term of the loan. This would result is a more stable real estate market
with other stability, equity and resource allocation benefits throughout the
economy.
Fixed interest loans place the burden of
prudence on financial institutions rather than on individuals who have the
least capacity to evaluate long term risks. They would result in more stable
interest rate levels for housing and in the economy generally.
Equity benefits would result as lower
income earners and first home buyers would benefit through more stable house
prices and more certain financial arrangements when taking out home loans.
Resource allocation would improve in the
economy as loanable funds were directed towards the most efficient sectors
rather than those where short decision making and speculation dominate.
Detailed
Submission.
The Price of Housing.
The point has been made that the current
housing boom (and rising house prices) is desirable - that it creates wealth
and an associated “wealth effect” which is good for the economy.
On the other hand, it has also been argued
that the rising price of housing is cutting out a large group of Australians
from the housing purchase market and committing them to lifetime of
accommodation rental. This also has effects on the economy which, in the long
term, may mean a large group with no access to the benefits of the “wealth
effect” thus affecting future consumption.
If the current “real” price of housing is
too high then this may have negative impacts on society and the economy as;
- more people are cut off from the “wealth effect”
- fewer people benefit from the security of home ownership and
- the economy diverts increasing investment funds towards housing rather than other (productivity raising) capital.
If “real” house prices in Australia are
significantly higher (or lower) than those in comparable countries a decision
needs to be made about the social desirability of this current situation. There
are clear benefits to society of a population which has a goal of home
ownership and a subsequent stability and happiness of owning a house. The level
of house prices will impact on the “Aussie Dream” of home ownership for young
home buyers. There are many factors affecting the prices of houses for these
people.
House Prices and Structural
Inflation.
The rise in the prices of houses relative
to other prices in the economy is a case of structural inflation - even though
house prices have been removed from the CPI calculations. Despite the positive
wealth effects for some people all inflation has negative impacts in terms of
resource allocation. If the cost of food doubled we would be taking a very
different view of such price rises. Inflation changes the “playing field” and
creates winners and losers.
If housing inflation created only winners
there would be no problem but this is probably not the case. There are “losers”
like those who are forced into permanent rental or who cannot live in their preferred
areas.
On the other hand, if these “losers” could
be compensated by the “winners” this may help restore equity but how could the
winners compensate those who lose in a free market economy? It would be difficult to imagine that this
happening and even if it did it may only serve to add more buyers to the market
further raising prices.
Growth of wealth is a good thing, however,
if it is not “real” and due only to inflation then it is illusory at best. At
worst it causes resource misallocation and inequity.
Factors Influencing the Price of
Housing.
Houses can be both a consumer durable good
and/or an asset for investment depending on who buys them. Thus two separate
markets influence house prices;
- The consumer market - those wanting a house to live in and
- The investor market - those wanting to make a profit from housing rental.
Both markets impact on the current price of
housing – sometimes separately – sometimes together
The price of housing, generally, depends greatly
upon the level of demand for housing. This overall demand is the demand
for accommodation (DA) – This is itself broken into two
areas;
- The (effective)demand for housing purchase (DP)
- The demand for housing rental (DR)
The relative cost of accommodation rental
vs. accommodation purchase is an important factor here in that
both are substitutes for each other. If one of these has a relatively lower
price than the other then its price will eventually rise as people move towards
it and away from the higher priced option – and vice versa. Thus if rental
prices are extremely high then more people may decide to enter the purchase
market and this may raise the prices of houses to match – in the long term. And
vice verse if house prices are too high. In this case more people will move
towards rental. In both cases “somebody” still has to buy a house – either the
consumer or a landlord but I will demonstrate below that the entry of landlords
into the housing market can have a different effect from that of consumer.
There is another important substitute
relationship. It is the comparative cost of buying an existing dwelling vs. the
cost of buying land and building a new dwelling. Where the cost of building a
new dwelling is low then the prices of existing dwellings will tend to fall and
vice verse.
Thus if the cost of building a new house is
extremely low compared with that of buying an existing one then more people
will decide to build until (in the long run) both prices levels even out. This
relationship depends on the supply of existing dwellings and the supply of land
to build relative to the population and its demand. Therefore if there is a
huge oversupply of existing housing prices will be low and demand for new
building will also fall as it becomes relatively more expensive.
These substitute effects operate in the
short term and may influence prices of houses over short periods. If this
coincides with other effects then prices may rise more (or less) sharply than
expected – but only in the short term. Eventually (in the long term) they even
each other out, however, it is these short term effects which cause problems
(albeit temporary) – especially for young home buyers.
Also, housing prices are relative. They are
relative to;
·
Housing prices in other areas
(nationally and internationally) – both for accommodation and for investment
·
Other forms of investment (eg
the equity market)
If house prices in Sydney are far higher
than those in Melbourne or Perth then, in the long term, people will move to
these cheaper areas and house prices there will rise. Interestingly, however,
in the process, Sydney house prices are unlikely to fall – they will continue
to lead the market – perhaps because of Sydney’s underlying DA factors.
Also if house prices in Australia were say
twice as high as those in the USA or Europe then (in the long term) a global
equilibrium process will take effect to hold back local prices and vice verse.
It should be noted that on this global market currency fluctuations may also
impact. As the $AUS rises and falls – especially as it has done over the past
10 years Australian houses become more or less attractive to overseas
investors.
In the same way if housing investment
becomes far less profitable than investing in say the share market then house
prices would be expected to fall and vice verse. This, also, may have had a
real impact on recent house prices – especially since the share price slump
post “911” as funds have moved from uncertain equity markets to more reliable
property markets.
These factors have all influenced current
house prices.
The Demand for Accommodation (DA).
The overall DA in an area is a function of
general environmental factors including;
- Population of an area
- Standard of living in an area – i.e. Income and spending levels
- The supply of loanable funds
- The supply of land in an area
- The supply of existing housing in an area (relative to the current population)
- The supply of land in an area (i.e. the potential for increased housing)
- Technology (which may impact on the cost of house building – as it did in the case of brick veneer and fibro construction methods after WWII). This in turn impacts on the supply of accommodation.
- Amenity of an area in terms of scenic beauty, etc
- Amenity of an area in terms of ability to provide livelihood – i.e. employment levels
Thus in a scenic area with a high
population and good employment prospects, high incomes, a good standard of
living, a limited supply of land, little available housing, little prospect for future cheap housing and
a high supply funds for loan one would expect house prices to be at a premium –
and the opposite would be true of a place without these things. This seems to be
a logical position from which to begin.
But why is it that in a place with all
these things that house prices sometimes boom and sometimes slump?
The DA will set the underlying trend for
“real” house prices in an area, however, there will be deviations above and
below the “real” price due to the number of people wishing to purchase (DP) vs.
the number wishing to rent (DR).
In both cases “somebody” has to own the
property and so we might expect that DP will always be the same despite the
number of renters. However, since the DP for investment is a derived demand (based
on the profits to be made from renting property) the price paid for
investment properties will be higher than those paid by the general public –
especially when rents are high and tax arrangements are favourable.
Thus when the DR is high one would expect
that house prices would rise as investors see the potential for profits from
rental. Those wishing to purchase for their own accommodation have to bid
against these investors they also face rising prices. If price levels rise
beyond their reach they will be forced to rent – again increasing the derived
demand to purchase rental properties.
All of this is driven by the overall DA,
however, the rise in house prices paid by investors will eventually be limited
by the capacity of renters to pay rent. If renter’s incomes are limited then
rents will be limited and so the derived demand for investment properties will
be limited. Investors will find other, more profitable, sectors to invest in.
On the other hand, if house prices were low
and fewer people needed to rent then rents would fall. Investors would also
tend to leave the housing sector and house prices would return to more normal
levels.
The desirability of investing in property
therefore depends on income levels and “real” purchasing power of those who
need accommodation (DA). The other important factor is the level of interest
rates which affect the profitability of housing investment and the ability to
access funds and to enter the housing purchase market by renters.
Population and House Prices.
There has been much discussion about the
importance of population growth in Australia on the recent house price boom and
population must have a strong underlying effect. In the case of Sydney there is
a structural effect as the majority of immigrants move there. The impact of
this population growth on house prices, however, depends on the effective
demand of these new citizens. With no effective demand to purchase the growing
population will be forced to rent and this may increase housing demand by
investor buyers thus bidding up prices – but only to the limit which renters
are able to pay.
If the new population does have effective
demand (in terms of income or access to loan funds) this will result in greater
demand for housing as a consumer durable and, consequently, a smaller rental
market, lower rental profits and fewer investment buyers.
There are also structural effects as
population changes – i.e. as the population ages or single households become
more common and so on. As this happens the demand for detached dwellings may
fall while the demand for units rises. This will impact housing prices because
the demand for the total number of dwellings rises.
Thus if the population of an area rises the
DA will naturally rise but this may result in either an increased DR
or an increased DP - depending on the ability of the population to
afford housing and thus have effective demand for it. If the population cannot
afford to buy housing then they will have to rent and so DR will rise
rather than DP.
However, if a rising population cannot
afford to rent then people still have to live somewhere. In this case they will
either share housing or build squatter’s housing as happens in less developed
economies. In these cases it can be seen that rising population alone will NOT
lead to a rise in housing prices. In fact it may lead to a fall in housing
prices as squatter’s houses and overcrowding by low income earners lead to a
decline in the amenity of an area.
The currently high house prices are due, in
part, to changes in population size and structure, however, it may not be
population alone which is the major influence on the current price of housing.
Ability to enter the housing market as either a consumer or as an investor may
be a crucial factor. This, in turn, depends on incomes and the cost of
borrowing – interest rates.
The Supply of Housing.
The two major factors which impact the price of housing
directly are the supply of housing and the demand for housing.
The supply of housing is no doubt an
important factor in setting the price of housing. If the supply of housing is
too high then house prices will fall and vice verse. On the other hand the
supply of houses also responds to changes in the price of housing.
In the current situation it seems clear
that the supply of housing is rising to meet the current high levels of demand
– i.e. as the prices of houses rise the supply of houses expands. This is the
normal operation of the price mechanism to reach equilibrium, however, this
expansion of supply may be an inefficient use of resources if the price rise is
driven by factors other than “real” demand for accommodation (DA). If, for
instance, it is driven by an oversupply of cheap home loan funds or unrealistic
expectations of speculative gain then it may be better for the economy if the
resources were used elsewhere instead.
There is an underlying need to increase
supply as population grows and family units decrease in size – especially in
the large cities. However, if housing supply growth is driven by factors other
than such “real” demand then this increase is not maximizing society’s
satisfaction.
The Effective Demand for Housing
Purchase (DP).
Effective demand refers to demand which is
backed up by ability to pay. The effective demand for housing purchase (DP) is
a function of;
- The “real” price of housing
- Incomes
- Interest rates
- Government subsidies -e.g. the first home buyer’s grant
- Taxation subsidies - e.g. negative gearing
- Housing loan profitability for financial institutions - compared with profitability of selling loans to other sectors - such as business
- Returns from investment in the housing market - In this sense the demand for housing is a derived demand – not desired for its own satisfaction but for the profit that can be made from it – in the same way that labour in a factory has a derived demand. The more money that can be made from it the more buyers are willing to pay and the higher they will bid for properties.
- Returns from investment in other sectors – including the equities market or the international sector
- Marketing - by real estate businesses, financial institutions and the media. This is influenced by the profitability of the housing market (d above) but also feeds into it by fuelling speculative demand pressures – especially when interest rates are low and access to loans funds is high.
- The prices of substitutes – eg moving interstate or overseas, or renting
Of these factors the government has most
direct influence over;
·
Government subsidies
·
Taxation policy and
·
Interest rates (through the
Reserve Bank)
For each of these three areas we can look
at “extreme” scenarios to examine their influence on housing prices. i.e.
situations where these factors are either extremely low or extremely high. In
these extremes, if all other conditions are held constant, then we can see more
clearly their impact on housing prices.
Government Subsidies.
At one extreme if the first home buyer’s
grant was eliminated (all things being equal) one would expect it to
have a downward impact on housing prices as new home buyers were forced out of
the market. However the subsequent increase in rental demand could mean higher
prices as investors buy more rental properties.
At the other extreme, if the first home
buyer’s grant were raised, to say $100,000, it would probably have an upward
effect on prices as more buyers entered the market. This would continue until
the first home buyers market was saturated or until house prices rose to a
point where they were again unaffordable for first home buyers.
The paradox here is that (in both cases)
such a subsidy may help make houses less affordable for those it is trying to
help by creating increased demand and higher prices. It may be more helpful to
do something to hold down house prices than to add more fuel to the market.
Taxation Policy.
At one extreme, if negative gearing were
eliminated from the taxation regime it is clear that housing prices would fall
and vice verse if the taxation benefits of negative gearing were to improve.
Negative gearing has clearly added buyers to the housing market especially
since the growth of promotions on the media and through financial institutions
about its benefits. Such marketing has almost certainly added fuel to the
housing market and lead to higher prices.
These buyers are investment buyers. They
will bid up the prices of houses to the point where profits and tax advantages
allow them to do so.
Again a paradox may exist. That negative
gearing (which was designed to provide lower cost rental properties for those
who cannot afford to buy homes) may have lead to more and more people being
forced into the category of permanent renters.
Taxation policy can have a big impact on
economic activity. The previous removal of negative gearing had a huge impact
on the supply of rental accommodation and housing prices. However negative
gearing is adding “highly charged” buyers and this is making it difficult for
first home buyers to compete.
Consumers and Investors Together.
The worst scenario occurs when conditions
are right for both investors and consumers to enter the market. When incomes
are high and interest rates are low both groups have access to funds and the
ability to buy. This tends to drive up house prices very quickly. This happens
most quickly when interest rates are falling from high levels. It is like a
green light to enter the house market.
Interest Rates.
The housing loan market cannot be seen in
isolation. What happens there impacts the economy as a whole due to the limited
funds available for loan.
Interest rates form a very real part of the
direct cost of housing. This is because the cost of loan repayments can be up
to 3 times the cost of the original house price. This can have a huge impact on
the decision to purchase.
At one extreme, if interest rates for
housing were zero then it is fair to argue that house prices would rise as more
and more people used these “free” funds to buy more and more houses. On the
other hand it could also be argued that so many people would be building new
houses that their prices would eventually fall due to oversupply – but this
would be in the long term. The result of these under priced funds would be
resource misallocation.
At the other extreme, if interest rates
were 100% to 200% it’s fair to say that few people would be involved in the
housing purchase market. House prices may be relatively low because few people
could make returns out of such expensive loans from simply renting out their
properties. Either that or nobody could afford the rents charged and people
would be forced into squatter’s huts.
In reality, however, none of these
scenarios would occur because housing loans are only one option open to money
lenders. Housing funds must complete on the open market with other borrowers for
access to money. The basis for this competition is the “marginal efficiency of
capital” – the profitability of investment in housing vs. the profitability of
investing in other sectors.
If, for some reason, the profits from
investing in housing are higher than other sectors then more loan funds will be
directed there and other sectors will be (relatively) underfunded.
When interest rates are low the marginal
efficiency of capital in housing (the profitability) is high. This causes the investment
demand for housing purchase to rise - thus raising the prices of houses.
Moreover, because housing loans are often
taken over very long periods, there is a great degree of uncertainty about future
conditions – both in the housing market and the interest rate market.
Uncertainty in the housing market is
usually confined to the short or medium term because most buyers believe that
in the long term housing prices will rise. An average of 100% every ten years
is often quoted.
In the interest rate market, however, there
is much greater uncertainty. Interest rates may reach as high as 15% or 16%. If
this was to occur over the next few years then the profitability of investing
in houses would fall dramatically and there would be a big fall in real house
prices as both investors and consumers dropped out of the market.
The primary risk taker in this process is
the borrower who is usually committed to a variable loan. As interest
rates climb the borrower faces huge debt servicing problems. Even with fixed
interest loans are usually fixed for no more than 5 years after which the
borrower is again at the mercy of unknown future interest rates. Financial
Institutions (FI’s) tend to be insulated from such interest rises
because of this system. The borrower carries almost all the risk.
FI’s pass on most rate rises. If default
occurs they sell off mortgaged properties to recoup their loans. If FI’s have
been prudent few losses will occur due to existing loans and fewer new loans
will be given as fewer people can afford the repayments.
The Current Interest Rate Regime.
Currently housing loan interest rates are
dominated by the variable loan. The current rate is set by prevailing
interest rates and if rates should rise in the future the loan is readjusted
accordingly. This is done solely in the favor of the banks and to the cost of
borrowers with often disastrous results as rates rise.
Under the current situation purchasers of
houses tend to have short term view when making a decision to borrow. This is emphasized by the trend toward “honeymoon” rates for the first year. These are
designed to attract borrowers with short term perspectives. Under these
conditions borrowers often overvalue future profits from capital gain and
discount concerns about future interest rate rises. They may therefore tend to
borrow more than more prudent investors would and thus end up facing financial
difficulties in the long run if interest rates rise substantially before
capital gains are achieved. This strategy is quite okay at the start of a boom
cycle but very dangerous towards the end of one.
For this reason banks can profit more from
lending to housing purchasers during booms. While business investors are being
prudent about their investment decisions (taking account of the longer term)
house buyers (in general) are much more short sighted and much less prudent.
Banks lend them more because the risk of loss is small – especially in the case
of second mortgages. So interest rates have a tremendous effect on the
immediate decision to borrow for houses for both borrowers and lenders.
This variable interest system may be
responsible for an over allocation of funds to the housing market by FI’s by
providing them with a safe, profitable investment environment – at the expense
of borrowers. They may also contribute to the very rapid rise in house prices
as interest rates fall.
Besides being a cost of housing, interest
rates are also an instrument of government economic policy. If a recession
looms governments tend to keep interest rates low to improve the marginal
efficiency of capital in all sectors. When this happens it is usually the
housing and construction sectors which “take up the slack” and help pull the
economy back into strength.
At these times loanable funds are diverted
towards the housing sector and house prices may rise. This may be seen as a
kind of temporary structural (sectoral) inflation due to temporarily increased
liquidity. This liquidity placed at the disposal of investors with a short term
(perhaps imprudent) view can increase demand and raise prices.
Thus the housing and construction industry
is a kind of economic “relief valve.” However, if this relief valve is left
open for too long and overlaps with a boom in housing the effect is to
accentuate structural inflation in the housing sector and this has impacts on
the rest of the economy through the price mechanism.
This is similar to the way the share market
has seen a general rise in prices over the past 10 years as a result of
increased global superannuation funds in search of somewhere to be invested.
When liquidity is in over supply prices will rise.
Low interest rates, thus, may contribute
rising house prices irrespective of other variables due to the short term
investment view taken by inexperienced investors who find it easy to obtain
finance. This results in an over allocation of funds into the sector.
Interest Rates and House Prices.
There is a direct relationship between
house prices and interest rates. For example, at a certain level of demand and
supply (and therefore a certain price level for houses) a fall in interest
rates will lower the cost of housing purchase. This has the effect of increasing
effective demand and so house prices will rise. If interest rates fall
again price will rise further until over supply eventually results.
On the other hand if interest rates were to
rise dramatically house prices would stop rising and may even fall as buyers
readjust their purchase decisions.
In the long run the other overall DA will
set the underlying trend for house prices but the current interest rate will
impact greatly in the short term because the cost of interest makes up the
great majority of the cost of housing – up to 300% of the original purchase
price. In many cases the purchase price is almost irrelevant (compared to the
interest rate cost) because buyers see future capital gain as a “certainty”. It
is the interest rate which determines the purchaser’s capacity to make
repayments and therefore their bids for properties on the market.
Banks, House Buyers and the Current
System.
This current system may be creating a
housing market which is more volatile than it needs to be - characterized by
booms and slumps in the short term while showing an underlying general (and
expected) growth in the long term. This long term trend is driven by the
overall demand for accommodation (DA) due to population growth, etc. However,
it is the “boom” cycle which is causing the current problem for first home
buyers and will also cause future problems when the “slump” phase hits - as it
will.
Already there is talk of a housing slump
over the next 5 to 10 years as interest rates begin to rise.
If house prices do fall significantly the
banking sector is largely insulated from the pain. Even if large numbers of over financed properties have to be sold off cheaply banks which have been
prudent should suffer no more than a decline in profit growth.
In the meantime many of the bank’s
customers would have faced great hardship as they were forced to accept the
burden of their imprudent decision making. It may be better for the economy if
this burden of prudence was placed on the banks which have far better
structures for dealing with such long term economic decisions.
A New System?
The current situation could be improved if
ALL housing loans had to be fixed interest rate loans.
Under such a system banks would have to
make prudential decisions about housing loans and housing loan rates would tend
to even out over the long term. This would bring far greater stability to the
housing loan market and to house prices.
Under this system consumers would also
benefit if interest rates fell as they could refinance existing loans and they
would have greater financial certainty when taking out loans in the first
place.
In the long run banks would be no worse off
than they are at present even though short term booms would be less profitable.
Conclusion.
For the economy as a whole a fixed interest
home loan system could mean improved efficiency in the investment sector as
borrowers of funds compete more equally for loans. The business sector would
benefit more from government decisions to reduce interest rates in uncertain
times – because it would have more access to funds currently being channeled
into the housing sector. Price and interest rate stability would be greater overall
and the economy would be more effective in satisfying the population’s needs
and wants.
Stability in the housing market would also
bring greater overall stability. Unnecessary shifts in employment between
sectors would be reduced and, while the “wealth effect” due to speculative
booms in real estate may diminish so too would its negative side - the “loss of
wealth effect” during slumps.
While fixed interest rate housing loans
would not totally remove booms and busts from the economy it may be one step in
micro-economic reform which would help do so. It may also improve the
allocation of loanable funds in the economy as a whole. Allowing them to flow
to the sectors most desired for the society.
A housing boom is like a gold rush – great
if you’re in on it but basically a lot of pushing and shoving which could be
avoided if common sense prevailed.
It can be argued that interest rates have remained low because the government has been more focussed on warding off a double dip recession. But how can this be sustained? Interest rates will have to rise to curb inflation and also to prevent the development of hyper inflation.
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